One of the most accurate pollsters in US political history has stated that incumbent US president Donald Trump has a 91% chance of holding on to the White House even though most polls put his rival, Joe Biden ahead.
Pollster Helmut Norpoth correctly predicted Donald Trump’s shock election win back in 2016 and four years later his poll model predicts the Trump will win again.
Norpoth, a professor of political science at New York’s Stony Brook University, created his prediction model in 1996 by analysing data from every US election going back to 1912.
The model is based around each candidate’s performance in their party’s Primary Elections, or Primaries, where Democrats and Republicans voted for who their party’s presidential candidate should be.
When Norpoth compared Trump and Biden’s Primaries to those over the last 108 years, he argues he can predict the outcome of the actual election.
In this year’s Republican primary Trump won 94% while Biden won just 54% of the Democratic primary.
Due to this, Norpoth says Biden will win the popular vote while Trump will win the electoral college.
“I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests,” Norpoth said in the press release. “It’s a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what’s going to happen in November.”
His model has been successful in predicting presidential winners since 1996.
“When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes … I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict,” Norpoth said.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, won only 8.4% in New Hampshire, Norpoth said, a number that is “unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president,” he stated.
Update: Abductors of catholic priest demand ‘N100m ransom’
The Kidnappers of Reverend father Matthew Dajo of the St Anthony Catholic Church in Yangoji village, Kwali Area Council in Abuja suburb, are reportedly demanding for N100 million ransom before the victim will be set free.
The Catholic priest was abducted on Sunday, November 22 around 9:47:pm. It was gathered that the gunmen stormed the catholic priest’s residence with sophisticated weapons and then whisked him away.
A member of his church told Daily Trust that contact was established with the kidnappers on Saturday, and they have demanded N100 million as ransom.
“And you know since he was abducted, his abductors did not call until on Saturday and they are demanding for N100 million, but I don’t know at what figure has the man who is negotiating with them has been able to arrive at,” he said.
The insider said members of the church are facing a major problem on how to raise the large sum as it’s against the rules of the church to pay for ransom. He also stated the church is solely depending on the family members and relatives of the victim to source for ransom.
“And the other thing we are more worried about is that when a reverend father is abducted, it is against the rules of the church to pay for ransom, except the family members, friends or relatives of the victim can take such responsibility,” he said.
Zahra Buhari reacts to the murder of rice farmers in Zabarmari
Zahra Buhari-Indimi has reacted to the murder of 110 rice farmers in Zabarmari village in Borno state.
The daughter of the president of Nigeria shared a newspaper shot of the Zabarmari massacre and wrote: “My heart bleeds”.
Her reaction comes two days after Boko Haram terrorists attacked rice farmers in their farms and slaughtered them. The death toll was initially at 43 but has now been updated to 110.
Disappointed customer shows dress she ordered and what her tailor made
A customer who asked a tailor to make her a dress was left disappointed at what was delivered.
The woman shared a photo of the dress she ordered and what was delivered.
She explained that a friend introduced her to the tailor who then sent her 5 dresses to choose from. She chose one and the tailor charged her 70,000 Naira.
She haggled down to 65,000 Naira and made payment for the dress.
However, the dress was not ready on time for her birthday. When it finally came, it was nothing like what she ordered.
The Twitter user was told that she probably ordered an inferior material but she explained that the tailor handled everything, including sourcing the material for the dress.
She went on to share videos to show how the finishing was.
She added that she asked the tailor to keep 25,000 Naira and make a refund of 40,000 and she’ll return the dress, but the tailor refused.
Below are tweets shared by the disappointed customer alongside videos of the dress delivered.